I want to confirm one more time about the refund thing. If the player transfers next week, do I 100% get my money back? I've been burned before on a different site.
I can't speak for every site, but on the reputable ones that use the "conditional deal" model, yes. The money isn't released to the player until the commitment is fulfilled. If they transfer or quit, the deal is void and the funds return to you. It is the safest way to do NIL. You should read the "How it Works" section on a profile like https://rallyfuel.com/athletes/brandon-klatsky, it explains the refund trigger clearly. It definitely makes me more willing to spend.